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‘Hard landing’ forecast for container freight rates

Spot rates, as recorded by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), seem to be on a “fast-declining trend”.

Over the past four weeks, the SCFI index has dropped 33% which is the second largest four-week drop since the beginning of the SCFI index in 2009. Also, charter rates also falled 26% week-on-week last week.

On the newbuild front, the first signs of a falling market are surfacing with Splash reporting last week of Seaspan’s decision to cancel four 7,700 teu newbuilds it had contracted K Shipbuilding in South Korea to construct.

However, despite the declines seen across multiple container indices in recent months, most analysts are forecasting liner shipping will rake in record profits for the full year thanks to earlier secured long-term rates.

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Reference: Sam Chambers, "‘Hard landing’ forecast for container freight rates",, Sep 19, 2022


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